New Fox News poll shows Texas Senate race closer than expected
New Fox News poll shows Texas Senate race closer than expected
Adam Powell, USA TODAY NETWORKThu, October 1, 2026 at 11:47 PM UTC
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A new Fox News poll shows the Texas U.S. Senate race tightening weeks before Election Day, with Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow two-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton, 51% to 49%.
The poll, released Oct. 1, surveyed 1,203 likely Texas voters between Sept. 24 and Sept. 28. It adds to growing evidence that Texas — long considered reliably red — could play a pivotal role in the fight for Senate control in November.
Talarico remains more favorably viewed than Paxton. Fifty-two percent of respondents view Talarico favorably compared with 44% unfavorably, while Paxton sits at 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable.
The Democrat holds clear advantages among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under 35 (62%). Paxton leads among white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters 65 and older (55%).
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On key issues heading into the Nov. 3 election, Talarico holds a 19-point lead among voters who say the economy is a top factor, an 18-point lead among those focused on artificial intelligence concerns and a six-point edge among those who say President Donald Trump will be central to their vote. Paxton holds a 20-point lead among voters who cite immigration as their top concern.
The poll comes as Talarico has publicly challenged Paxton to a debate — a challenge that has so far gone unanswered.
Talarico vs. Paxton polls
Here's what September polls have shown so far:
Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.
SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.
AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Fox News poll shows Texas Senate race closer than expected
Source: “AOL Breaking”
